Interacting default intensity with a hidden Markov process

In this paper we consider a reduced-form intensity-based credit risk model with a hidden Markov state process. A filtering method is proposed for extracting the underlying state given the observation processes. The method can be applied to a wide range of problems. Based on this model, we derive the joint distribution of multiple default times without imposing stringent assumptions on the form of default intensities. Closed-form formulas for the distribution of default times are obtained which are then applied to solve a number of practical problems such as hedging and pricing credit derivatives. The method and numerical algorithms presented can be applicable to various forms of default intensities.     

出口企业更清洁吗？——基于微观企业数据的再考察

基于工业企业数据以及环境统计数据,构建1998-2007年面板数据实证分析出口对企业二氧化硫排放强度的影响。回归结果显示：相较于非出口企业,出口企业二氧化硫排放强度较低;企业出口强度越高时二氧化硫排放强度越低。异质性分析发现：企业所属行业以及企业所在地区差异均会对二氧化硫排放强度产生影响。具体表现为,污染密集型制造业行业中,出口企业比非出口企业更为清洁;相较于其他地区而言,东部地区企业出口对二氧化硫排放强度的降低幅度更为显著。在排除两控区环境规制因素对回归结果的影响,并且通过IV(2SLS)以及PSM-DID等方法处理内生性问题后,本文的回归结果依然稳健。机制分析表明：出口企业一方面通过提高新产品产值——R D,另一方面通过提高全要素生产率,降低了企业的二氧化硫排放强度。此外,通过对企业出口状态的改变(广延边际)和企业出口强度的改变(集约边际)的比较发现,出口企业二氧化硫排放强度低的主要驱动因素在于广延边际而非集约边际。     

基于协整检验的江苏省碳排放强度影响因素分析

文章首先利用pearson关联度分析,从可能影响江苏省碳排放强度的七个因素中筛选出与碳排放强度相关度最高的前三个变量:能源强度、第三产业比重和外贸依存度,然后采用协整分析方法研究三个变量和碳排放强度之间的长期均衡关系,得到协整模型和向量误差修正模型,同时进行脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析.结论为江苏省碳排放强度与能源强度、第三产业比重之间存在正向影响关系,碳排放强度与外贸依存度之间存在负向影响关系.鉴于分析结果,建议从提高能源效率、第三产业低碳化和优化对外贸易结构三个方面降低江苏省碳排放强度.     

SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRIX FOR INDIA

This paper provides the latest Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of the year 2003–2004 for the Indian economy with a wide variety of disaggregation for the Energy sector and the sectors that are relevant for environmental and climate policy evaluation. This SAM shows the interaction between production, income, consumption and capital accumulation. It can be used to provide an analysis of the interrelationship between the production structure of an economy and the distribution of incomes and expenditures of different household groups. In addition, it can be used for multiplier analysis to capture direct, indirect and induced impact on input use due to any exogenous changes in the economy. This SAM consists of 85 sectors of the economy, three factors of production and nine categories of occupational households. The Indian economy is becoming structurally biased towards capital intensive sectors, such as service and energy production. The energy production sector itself is the most energy intensive sector as of 2003–2004.     

企业创新性的若干表征:自制造业观察

近年来,特别是加入WTO以来,我国企业面临着越来越激烈的市场竞争。加大自主创新力度、提高技术水平是保持企业发展的必由之路。利用2005年我国全部国有及规模以上制造业企业数据,从多个角度对我国企业自主创新强度进行了详细分析,结果表明:创新强度在不同行业、不同所有制类别和不同隶属关系的企业之间存在显著差异,但在不同地域的企业间不存在显著差异。从税收减免、研发补贴等方面加强对集体企业、私营企业和乡镇企业的创新支持,是提高我国企业自主创新能力的可行路径。     

基于IPEA方程思想的江苏省节能潜力分析

基于IPEA方程思想,对江苏省能源消耗进行了历史回顾,预测了2010年、2015年和2020年的江苏省能源消耗总量;通过产业结构演进—能源消费和产业结构演进—单位GDP能耗两个模型,分析了1985年以来江苏省产业结构演进与能源消费和单位GDP能耗的关系,结果显示,产业结构演进与一次能源消费总量和单位GDP能耗之间存在着密切的关系,通过IPEA方程分析和预测可知,在按GDP年递增率0.10的情况下,如果单位GDP能耗递减率低于0.0909,能源消耗量会增加。在今后的发展中,江苏省应继续通过一系列产业结构调整和优化措施,降低能源消耗。     

The relative influence of competitive intensity and business strategy on the relationship between financial leverage and performance

This study empirically investigates the effects of competitive intensity and business strategy on the relationship between financial leverage and the performance of firms. Based on a sample of US manufacturing firms, this study confirms the hypothesis that the cost of debt is higher for product differentiation firms than cost leadership firms. Furthermore, the results indicate that competitive intensity has a negative effect on the leverage-performance relationship, suggesting that competition acts as a substitute for debt in limiting manager's opportunistic behavior. These findings reinforce the need to consider moderating factors such as strategic choice and the environment in which a firm operates when investigating the effects of leverage on performance.     

林木损失额价值计量及损毁程度系数研究——以北京地区为例

提出林木损失额的价值计量以损毁程度系数(Kd)作为调整值,并且对树木的生理损毁、观赏损毁、生理和观赏部位同时损毁三种受损类型分别进行讨论,提出根据树木损毁程度(d)与价值损失之间的强度系数(ε)来确定损毁程度系数的方法。根据损毁程度系数计算公式Kd=dε,计算得出不同损毁程度下树木生理损毁程度系数值。其意义在于解决了由于林木损伤程度的不同,而体现出林木价值损失额的不同,从而为更加准确、合理地计量林木损失额提供了科学依据。     

黑龙江省发展循环经济的资源消耗强度分析与预测

针对黑龙江地区资源消耗过度的问题,从降低资源消耗强度的角度提出了相关产业策略。从传统的IPAT方程出发,分析和推导了资源消耗强度的相关理论,并采用物质流模型分析了资源消耗强度的影响因子,从而对黑龙江地区资源过度消耗的现状,提出了降低资源消耗强度的相关产业策略。